Tuesday, January 24, 2017

Rate of Change

In calculus the rate of change is the derivative of the function, but in this case, the slope of the line at the current time is fast, high, and we are at the end of our experience. We have no indication that our life function continues past this point. All other similar functions just stop, or die to zero very quickly. In my lifetime I have seen technologies die off, be born and die in my working life. Fax, teletype. And the change, drafting by hand, computer, now standardized franchise designs, pick one of many past and customize. More problems, and mistakes. Oh well, I am retired now.

We humans may have exceeded our natural rate of change adaptability. Just as computers have exceeded our "need utility" and as a result, are not being replaced as fast, How much communications do we actually need? How much automation do we need? When computers are replacing minimum labor rate jobs, is there an economic benefit to society? There may be to companies, but to society? We humans have been society based, but now the electronics make human interaction unnecessary. What will that do to our society?

Self check out at the grocery store. I saw a lady? fill her purse with vitamins the other day, from her basket, in what I would guess is a camera dark area, with her back to the camera. How many time will she get away with it before some wises up? It is not safe to stick my oar in, so why would I? Security may be a growth industry, but unless a human is actually alertly watching in real time, what is the point of cameras? So who is the first to get laid off? The camera watchers or not get hired? Oh well.

So with a high rate of change in the employment, what career path should be considered? I have no idea. It is a question like what is the economy going to be like 10 years from now? Career choice is often that long term of planning.

There are those who say go with your heart, yet so many people do not have a strong desire for anything specific. I was gloated into becoming an engineer, but there was little for engineering employment for many of those years so I did various things, and some engineering. Oh well, I survived and I retired. looking back, I was poorly trained for some parts of engineering, and over trained for other parts. Miss match, mainly due to rapid change in the industry. I also noted another big change coming, economic decisions not sound engineering, where the lowest bidder was cutting below the code where he could find someone to take responsibility, and that make competition and code following difficult. Oh well, I retired.

It is this rate of change that will kill many industries, or at least some of the employees. As we get older, we need to be able to move up or upgrade our skill set entirely too fast. I figured it was we needed to spend 10% of our time learning new skill, but in some areas it must be higher, perhaps 20% or more.

I grew up learning to harness horses and work horses, and now what do we have? Some is cultural, granted I came from a backwards local community, and so much of what we have today is a result of cultural/societal characteristics. So what is the ideal society/culture, and where will that be at in the future? That may be a study of idealism of the future, but not the reality of what will be achieved due to retro people coming into power, alternative facts importing alternative reality governments. Men controlling women and abortion in an overpopulated world will just end in civil strife. People have had a taste of freedom, and Trump's proclamations cannot end well.

The British have over regulated themselves into a tight place, from which there may be no legal escape. Oh well.     


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